Worthy Christian News Blog » Wars and Rumors of Wars

As I was sifting through the news today, a small article written by the New York Sun really caught my eye and I was amazed how short the article was — and even more shocked how little coverage it received!

Iran’s bellicosity comes as its closest Iraqi political ally, Moqtada al Sadr, appears to be capitulating to the Iraqi government’s demand that his Mahdi Army disarm and rejoin the political process as a social services organization. The Wall Street Journal reported last night that a recent brochure for Mr. Sadr’s organization says the Mahdi Army “is not allowed to use arms at all.” The brochure also says “The Mahdi Army will now be guided by Shiite spirituality instead of anti-American militancy.” – Source NY Sun

I’ve met believers that have worked within Iraq who’ve been kidnapped by groups under the control of al Sadr, and they’ve relayed to me how he controlled his militias using fear.  When I read this,  I’m pondering whether the fear in which al Sadr controls different factions is dwindling — and if it is, then the tide has truly turned in Iraq which can only be a good thing!

Until next time…

Last night, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stated he intended to resign immediately after the Kadima primaries being held on September 17th.  So what does this mean?

As I stated in an earlier piece, I was eagerly awaiting what was going to transpire politically in Israel. The day following Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s return from the United States, PM Olmert resigns which seems to imply that the Israelis will wait at least a few months before they strike Iran.

Now the question remains who will the Kadima party vote for in September?

Right now, I’ll be watching the race between former General and Chief of the General Staff of the IDF, Shaul Mofaz and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.  This primary will be interesting to watch because of the very different stances that Mofaz and Livni hold.

Mofaz has stated in recent weeks the need to attack Iran, despite the fact that he was actually born in Tehran, Iran.  His family immigrated to Israel in 1957 when he was just 9 years old.   He is likely to pledge no return of the Golan Heights to Syria, no division of Jerusalem ever, and no territorial compromise with the Palestinians until they defeat terrorism.

Livni is quite different, being one of Sharon’s strongest allies when Israel disengaged from the Gaza Strip.  She advocates the need for a two-state solution, and its her determination to seek a peace deal with the Palestinians that distinctly differentiates her from Mofaz.

It will be interesting to watch for the next month, but for now it appears Israel will be at peace for the rest of its Shabbatical year which ends on Rosh HaShannah.

Until next time…

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak just returned from two days of meetings in the United States where he pressed U.S. officials of the perception within Israel that the United States is softening its stance concerning Iran. In response, the United States is providing Israel with an advanced missile warning system that would provide Israelis knowledge of a missile attack in its earliest stages.

After some lobbying on Barak’s part, the American officials pledged Israel would be connected to the global US system, capable of detecting an impending attack while the missile’s engine is just heating up. Israel is primarily intent on obtaining logistical support from the US, which would allow the IDF to launch a solo operation if need be. – Source: Ynet News

What I found interesting within this article was this phrase — “which would allow the IDF to launch a solo operation if need be.” Are the Israelis preparing for an attack without the U.S.?

Will the Israelis wait till they are connected to the U.S. missile system? If so, then it appears the war may be postponed for at least a few months!

Until next time…

In today’s edition of Time, there was an interesting analysis of the potential problems of an Israeli strike on Iran. It was co-written by Aaron Klein, the Jerusalem bureau chief of World Net Daily. For those who’ve not been following Aaron, he has great insight in the Middle East being one of the few journalists that routinely interviews top level terrorists as well as high ranking officials throughout the region. For now, I’m going to analyze just a few of the provocative statements within the article.

One top Israeli military planner privy to Israel’s discussions with the U.S. on Iran, “We were under the illusion during Bush’s last visit that he was much more determined to order a military action.” No longer.

According to this statement, it appears a strike was definitely being planned, and suddenly it’s been taken off the table by the Americans.

Last week’s U-turn, in which the Bush Administration sent a high-ranking State Department official to join the European delegation meeting Iran’s top nuclear negotiator…so dismayed were the Israelis by the latest U.S. moves, one military source told TIME, that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert wrote to Bush complaining that Israel should have been forewarned about the White House’s abrupt change of course towards Iran.

When I first read this change of action by the Bush administration, it led me to believe that the U.S. wanted to at least show it’s willingness to negotiate with Iran…so if there was a future strike on Iran…the President could say, we exhausted every means possible before this tough decision was made. Now the question is: Are the Israelis playing the game with the Americans? Or were they truly blind sided?

A top former officer from Mossad, the Israeli equivalent of the CIA, told TIME that Israel is mindful that an air strike on Iran would jolt the U.S. presidential election — probably rebounding badly on Republican contender Senator John McCain. Sources say that Israel sees a narrow “window of opportunity” for military action opening up between November and the swearing-in of the new American president next January. “No Israel leader wants to be blamed for destroying the Republican chances,” says the former Mossad officer. Source: Time

For quite some time, I’ve been wondering how Olmert continues to stay in power with so many scandals that surround him?

Why doesn’t Benjamin Netanyahu attack Olmert when he’s so vulnerable? Could it be that Netanyahu’s connections inside the military, being the former PM, are informing him of a pending strike on Iran? If this were the case — then it makes sense why Bibi is reluctant. Nobody in Israel wants to be in the midst of a transition government when a major military action is being taken — especially one that has the potential to explode into WWIII — no matter how weak Olmert is. Could this be the reason he’s not assailing Olmert and trying to take down the coalition government?

I’ll be carefully watching the return of Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi from Washington. When he returns and IF the coalition government falls apart within the next two weeks — this would be an indicator of a postponement of any military action. The dissolution of the Israeli government now, would allow a stronger government to be formed. The new elections would likely take place during November and rising to power would be either: Benjamin Netanyahu, Ehud Barak, or Tzipi Livni.

If the collapse of the Israeli government were to occur now, then it would lead me to believe a potential Israeli attack on Iran has changed from late this summer to the narrow window of opportunity between November and January.

However, the problem remains — when will the nuclear reactor start in Bushehr? I still consider this to be the deadline of an Israeli strike.

Until next time…

Iran is set to receive an advanced Russian-made anti-aircraft system by year-end that could help fend off any preemptive strikes against its nuclear facilities, senior Israeli defence sources said on Wednesday.

First delivery of the S-300 missile batteries was expected as soon as early September, one source said, though it could take six to 12 months for them to be deployed and operable — a possible reprieve for Israeli and American military planners. – Source:Reuters

As far as a timeline of when Israel may strike Iran, I suppose here’s another reason why the Israelis will strike by early fall.   As I said before, I believe the strike on Iran will happen before Autumn — here’s just another reason why!

Until next time…

Suddenly within the past month, it feels like we’re returning to the Cold War.  It’s obvious that the Russians are quite annoyed by the attempts of the U.S. deploying a missile shield in Eastern Europe — the former backyard of the Russians.

The Czech Republic, a former Cold War ally of Russia, signed an agreement to deploy U.S. radar stations south of Prague.   These radar installations are to be incorporated in the future with interceptor missile systems based in Poland — another former Cold War ally of Russia.  The deployment of a U.S. missile shield in Eastern Europe is striking the nerve of Russia.  And my guess, it’s ticking Putin off!

Let’s not forget that Putin was the former head of the KGB, and though he’s supposedly not running the “show” — it’s quite obvious he’s still the major player in Russia.  So what’s the Russian response to these moves by the United States?

On June 26th, the Washington Times reported that Russian bombers are increasing their provocative bomber flights near the Alaskan coastline designed to rattle U.S. Air Defense.  Let’s not forget last year, the Russians buzzed an aircraft carrier, the U.S.S. Nimitz, in the Pacific.

The Washington Post reported yesterday, “Russian bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons could be deployed to Cuba in response to U.S. plans to install a missile defense system in Eastern Europe.” – Source: Washington Post

Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan leader, after pushing Exxon-Mobil out of Venezuela in February,  signed oil agreements with Russia’s oil companies: Gazprom, Lukoil and TNK-BP.  In addition to these agreements, he signed agreements allowing the Venezuelans to purchase $2 billion in weapons from the Russians.

After their toes were stepped on in the Eastern hemisphere, they’re returning the favor in the Western hemisphere as the saber rattles in Alaska, Cuba, and Venezuela.  Just when you thought the Russian bear was dead a few years ago — today we see it sharpening its claws!

Until next time…

On July 21, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi arrived in the United States for a week-long visit for talks on the Iranian threat. Ashkenazi has been hosted by Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in their second meeting in less than a month.

“We are entering a sustained period of intensive consultations meant to examine the feasibility of options toward Iran,” an official said. “The focus will now be military.”

“The chief of the General Staff will conduct a work meeting with his associate, Admiral Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs,” the statement said. “Afterwards, Lt. Gen. Ashkenazi, along with his escorts, will join Admiral Mullen for a gathering with seniors in the U.S. Armed Forces General Staff.”

Ashkenazi was also scheduled to meet senior Bush administration officials as well leaders of Congress. Officials said meetings with Vice President Richard Cheney and National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley have been scheduled, and that President George Bush and Defense Secretary Robert Gates were likely to join the sessions.

The Israeli chief of staff has been accompanied by the head of the military’s Strategic Department, Brig. Gen. Yossi Heyman. Heyman was said to have overseen the drafting of plans of an Israeli strike option against Iran. – Source: World Tribune

One day after the fails talks in Geneva, top Israeli defense officials are meeting with top U.S. officials.  One thing is certain, they are certainly in the advance stages of a military option with Iran.   As I said in a previous post the deadline for a strike is looming — and the time is drawing closer to a major conflict exploding in the Middle East.

Until next time…