Peace Plan: Ukraine Split Up Feared
By Stefan J. Bos, Worthy News Europe Bureau Chief
ROME/KYIV/BUDAPEST (Worthy News) – There was mounting concern Friday that Ukraine will be split up under a future peace deal and that Kyiv will be forced to accept it due to relentless Russian long-range drone and missile strikes.
“There is no safe place in Ukraine now,” said Milana, a resident of the southern city of Mykolaiv, which provides Ukraine with access to the Black Sea.
“There is no safe place in Ukraine. Previously, western Ukraine was considered relatively safe, but recently missiles have been flying there too,” she told Worthy News. “Every day is like roulette – who’s next,” she added.
Ever-escalating Russian attacks also forced Natali, a young mother who works as an accountant, to leave Kyiv for two days. “Several days ago, it was terrible,” she said about the attacks that forced many to seek shelter in underground metro stations.
Overnight strikes also killed and injured several people in Ukraine, while European leaders met in Rome, Italy, to plan for the eventual reconstruction of the country.
The conference, the fourth in this format, is attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
It comes at a time of unprecedented pressure on the Ukrainian economy as Russian President Vladimir Putin widens his targets across Ukraine, deploying record numbers of long-range drones.
US-LED PLAN
Diplomats and observers of the gathering expressed concern that a US-led plan for peace includes territorial concessions despite Kyiv’s refusal to accept them.
Additionally, if Ukraine were forced to concede the loss of control of four territories, over a third of its estimated reconstruction costs of nearly $200 billion would fall to a bankrupt Russia.
However, the eastern Russian-held territories are likely to suffer significantly, as the Marshall Plan would only extend to Ukraine’s territories.
The focus of the conference was encouraging long-term private-sector investment. However, that goal was overshadowed by the urgent need to protect Ukraine’s population and its economy amid ongoing Russian attacks.
Zelenskyy said in Rome: “Russia has also prepared, I must say, for this meeting because unfortunately last night, a few hours ago, there was a massive, heavy attack on Ukraine. In this case, the target was the capital, the city of Kyiv.”
Merz railed against the Russian attacks, saying: “These are practically only civilian targets. This is terrorism against the civilian population. This has nothing to do with a war against military targets.”
He added: “Our political duty is to increase pressure on Russia, to change Putin’s mind and bring him to the negotiating table.” Merz appealed to Slovakia to lift its veto over an 18th round of European Union sanctions against Moscow.
ITALIAN THINKTANK
The Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), an Italian think tank, has predicted, based on World Bank research, that the reconstruction costs in four largely Russian-held regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson – will be $188 billion.
Those regions could remain with Russia under a future peace deal, although Kyiv has not agreed.
Overall, the World Bank predicts that a 10-year plan for reconstruction and recovery, to be implemented between 2025 and 2035, would require at least $524 billion in investments.
Although the entire territory of the country was hit by attacks since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, 66 percent of the direct damage ($116 billion) and 47 percent of the total recovery and reconstruction costs ($248 billion) are attributable to Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as well as Kharkiv.
“If Kyiv decides to concede the four disputed regions to achieve the end of hostilities, it is plausible that Russia will have to shoulder a significant share of the reconstruction costs,” the ISPI warned.
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