World Enters Uncharted Nuclear Era as Last U.S.–Russia Arms Control Treaty Expires

by Emmitt Barry, Worthy News Washington D.C. Bureau Chief

(Worthy News) – The last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow expired Thursday, ending more than a decade of legally binding limits and verification measures that offered rare transparency into the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. The lapse of New START marks the first time in over half a century that the United States and Russia are operating without any active treaty governing their strategic nuclear forces.

The treaty, which entered into force in 2011 and was extended once in 2021, capped deployed warheads, missiles, and bombers while mandating on-site inspections and regular data exchanges. Its expiration comes amid sharply deteriorating U.S.-Russia relations, heightened nuclear rhetoric from Moscow, and growing concern that the absence of guardrails could fuel miscalculation or a renewed arms race at a moment of elevated global tension.

The Trump administration has argued that the strategic environment has fundamentally changed since the treaty was negotiated, pressing for any future arms control framework to include China. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that Beijing’s “vast and rapidly growing” nuclear stockpile makes it impossible to pursue meaningful limits without the communist power at the table. A Pentagon report released in December assessed that China aims to field at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.

Critics of New START within the U.S. defense community say the agreement imposed asymmetric constraints on Washington while failing to curb adversarial buildups. Mark Schneider of the National Institute for Public Policy, a veteran of arms control negotiations, called the treaty the worst post–Cold War nuclear deal, arguing that Russia’s 2023 suspension of participation stripped it of any practical enforcement. Without inspections or notifications, he said, the United States has been left with “basically nothing” in terms of insight into Russia’s force posture.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has linked any return to arms control to sweeping political demands, including an end to U.S. support for Ukraine and the inclusion of Britain and France in negotiations. Moscow has meanwhile tested new nuclear delivery systems and warned that U.S. missile defense initiatives could justify further expansion of Russia’s strategic arsenal, reinforcing concerns that restraint has given way to competition.

The treaty’s demise also coincides with accelerated modernization of the nuclear triad by all three major powers. The United States is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles, ballistic missile submarines, and the B-21 strategic bomber, while Russia claims most of its forces have already transitioned to post–Cold War systems. China, though still possessing a smaller arsenal, is expanding rapidly, prompting analysts to warn that unchecked growth on all sides could destabilize deterrence.

International officials have described the moment as deeply consequential. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world is entering a period with no binding limits on U.S. and Russian strategic arsenals just as geopolitical tensions and nuclear risks are at their highest in decades. While Washington and Moscow have both said they remain open to dialogue, the expiration of New START leaves the future of nuclear arms control uncertain—and the global security landscape markedly more fragile.

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